The takeaway
Flowers Foods Inc shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in March (+2.4%) and softest in May (−2.2%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 50% of years, averaging +0.7%, roughly 1.5 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Flowers Foods Inc's most dependable month has been March, higher in 8 of 10 years; May has been its least reliable, up just 30% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in December (+1.4 pts); it has trailed the market most in May (−2.9 pts).
“vs S&P” is Flowers Foods Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Flowers Foods Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, March has closed higher 80% of the time versus 80% across the last 10 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) March return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: March, up in 8 of 10 Marches while the other eleven tend to blur together.
Its average (+2.4%) and median (+2.0%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: March has cleared the S&P 500 by +1.3 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages March only about 56% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: January, April, and October have also closed higher more often than not. The weaker half of the year is plainer: May has been the soft spot — the weakest of 5 months that average a loss (−2.2%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in May, August, and September. Its roughest month on record was a −16.7% February in 2016 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: March aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the stock's best month (March), its worst (May), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2016 its best month (March, +2.4%) has run well ahead of its worst (May, −2.2%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
March has been the strongest, averaging +2.4% and closing higher in 8 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −2.2% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade