The takeaway
Vital Farms Inc shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 6 years of data — strongest in August (+10.2%) and softest in October (−5.7%).
Right now
In July, the stock has fallen 20% of years, averaging −1.6%, roughly 3.7 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Vital Farms Inc's most dependable month has been August, higher in 5 of 6 years; October has been its least reliable, up just 17% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | ||||||||||||
| 2020 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in August (+9.9 pts); it has trailed the market most in October (−6.7 pts).
“vs S&P” is Vital Farms Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Vital Farms Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, August has closed higher 80% of the time versus 83% across the last 6 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) August return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 6(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 6-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: August, up in 5 of 6 Augusts while the other eleven tend to blur together.
Its average (+10.2%) and median (+7.4%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even August ranges by 17.5% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: August has cleared the S&P 500 by +9.9 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages August only about 52% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: April and December have also closed higher more often than not. At the other end of the calendar, October has been the soft spot — the weakest of 6 months that average a loss (−5.7%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in October, July, and March. Its roughest month on record was a −22.1% March in 2021 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Augusts run ahead of the earlier years.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: August aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 6-year record and returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (August), its worst (October), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2020 its best month (August, +10.2%) has run well ahead of its worst (October, −5.7%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
August has been the strongest, averaging +10.2% and closing higher in 5 of 6 years since 2020.
It's the weakest, averaging −5.7% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade