The takeaway
GMO International Value ETF shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 2 years of data — strongest in February (+6.8%) and softest in October (−0.7%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 100% of years, averaging +0.2%, roughly 1.9 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
GMO International Value ETF's most dependable month has been February, higher in 1 of 1 years; October has been its least reliable, up just 50% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in February (+7.1 pts); it has trailed the market most in July (−1.9 pts).
“vs S&P” is GMO International Value ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating GMO International Value ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Not enough recent February history to say whether the pattern still holds.
Figures are the typical (median) February return and how often it rose — the last 1 years versus the last 2(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 2-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
This is a fund you can almost set a calendar by, and February is the anchor — it has closed higher in all 1 Februaries, the steadiest beat on its year.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+6.8%) and median (+6.8%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. No month is steadier: February's returns vary by just 0.0% year to year, and even its worst February in 2 years lost only 6.8% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Better still, that strength is the fund's own and not just a buoyant market — February has outpaced the S&P 500 by +7.1 points on average. It is the more striking for the company it keeps — February is a losing month for most of the market, where barely 49% of names gain ground.
February anchors a run, too: the January-through-September window has been the fund's reliable season. On the other side of the ledger, October has been the soft spot — the only month to average an outright loss (−0.7%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in July, October, and November.
For a fund this dependable in February, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 2-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (February), its worst (October), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2024 its best month (February, +6.8%) has run well ahead of its worst (October, −0.7%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
February has been the strongest, averaging +6.8% and closing higher in its one year on record since 2024.
It's the weakest, averaging −0.7% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade