The takeaway
Vanguard International High Dividend Yield Index Fund ETF Shares shows a slight seasonal lean over 10 years of data — strongest in April (+1.8%) and softest in October (−0.5%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 70% of years, averaging +1.7% — essentially in line with the S&P 500.
The full picture
Vanguard International High Dividend Yield Index Fund ETF Shares's most dependable month has been April, higher in 8 of 10 years; October has been its least reliable, up just 50% of the time.
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Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+2.6 pts); it has trailed the market most in October (−1.6 pts).
“vs S&P” is Vanguard International High Dividend Yield Index Fund ETF Shares’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Vanguard International High Dividend Yield Index Fund ETF Shares’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, April has closed higher 60% of the time versus 80% across the last 10 years — the pattern is weakening.
Figures are the typical (median) April return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Dependability is the through-line here. April stands out, higher in 8 of 10 Aprils, but it heads a clutch of months that pull the year reliably upward.
Its average (+1.8%) and median (+1.9%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. Set against the S&P 500, mind, April is close to a wash — the gain mirrors the market more than it beats it. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages April only about 55% of the time.
The strength clusters rather than stands alone — March–May forms a firm stretch that carries much of the year. The weaker half of the year is plainer: October has been the soft spot — the weakest of 3 months that average a loss (−0.5%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in October, March, and February. Its roughest month on record was a −20.1% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The pattern has softened of late, April's last five years slipping below its longer-run record.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: April aside, the fund's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the fund's best month (April), its worst (October), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Only mildly. The fund's months are fairly even — April is the firmest (+1.8%) and October the softest (−0.5%), a narrow spread that points to weak seasonality rather than a strong calendar effect.
April has been the strongest, averaging +1.8% and closing higher in 8 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −0.5% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
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