The takeaway
Innovator ETFs Trust shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 2 years of data — strongest in January (+3.9%) and softest in October (−1.6%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 50% of years, averaging +0.6%, roughly 1.6 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Innovator ETFs Trust's most dependable month has been January, higher in 1 of 1 years; October has been its least reliable, up just 50% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+4.1 pts); it has trailed the market most in October (−2.6 pts).
“vs S&P” is Innovator ETFs Trust’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Innovator ETFs Trust’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Not enough recent January history to say whether the pattern still holds.
Figures are the typical (median) January return and how often it rose — the last 1 years versus the last 2(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 2-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
This is a fund you can almost set a calendar by, and January is the anchor — it has closed higher in all 1 Januaries, the steadiest beat on its year.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+3.9%) and median (+3.9%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. No month is steadier: January's returns vary by just 0.0% year to year, and even its worst January in 2 years lost only 3.9% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Better still, that strength is the fund's own and not just a buoyant market — January has outpaced the S&P 500 by +4.1 points on average. Few peers keep such company in January — the typical stock clears it just 53% of the time.
It doesn't stand entirely alone — February, May, and August have leaned firm as well, if less emphatically. On the other side of the ledger, October has been the soft spot — the weakest of 2 months that average a loss (−1.6%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in October, November, and December.
For a fund this dependable in January, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 2-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (January), its worst (October), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2024 its best month (January, +3.9%) has run well ahead of its worst (October, −1.6%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
January has been the strongest, averaging +3.9% and closing higher in its one year on record since 2024.
It's the weakest, averaging −1.6% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade