The takeaway
iShares MSCI Saudi Arabia ETF shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in April (+4.3%) and softest in May (−2.4%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 60% of years, averaging +0.1%, roughly 2.0 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
iShares MSCI Saudi Arabia ETF's most dependable month has been April, higher in 8 of 10 years; May has been its least reliable, up just 30% of the time.
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Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in April (+2.7 pts); it has trailed the market most in May (−3.1 pts).
“vs S&P” is iShares MSCI Saudi Arabia ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating iShares MSCI Saudi Arabia ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, April has closed higher 60% of the time versus 80% across the last 10 years — the pattern is weakening.
Figures are the typical (median) April return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Dependability is the through-line here. April stands out, higher in 8 of 10 Aprils, but it heads a clutch of months that pull the year reliably upward.
Its average (+4.3%) and median (+4.9%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. Crucially, the gain is the fund's own rather than a rising tide's: April has cleared the S&P 500 by +2.7 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages April only about 55% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: January, March, and June have also closed higher more often than not. The weaker half of the year is plainer: May has been the soft spot — the weakest of 2 months that average a loss (−2.4%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in May, November, and July. Its roughest month on record was a −13.0% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
At its steadiest, April strung together 8 straight positive years. The pattern has softened of late, April's last five years slipping below its longer-run record.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: April aside, the fund's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the fund's best month (April), its worst (May), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2016 its best month (April, +4.3%) has run well ahead of its worst (May, −2.4%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
April has been the strongest, averaging +4.3% and closing higher in 8 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −2.4% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade