The takeaway
MBIA Inc shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in November (+13.0%) and softest in May (−6.2%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 70% of years, averaging +7.3%, about +5.2 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
MBIA Inc's most dependable month has been November, higher in 7 of 10 years; May has been its least reliable, up just 20% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in November (+10.7 pts); it has trailed the market most in May (−6.9 pts).
“vs S&P” is MBIA Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating MBIA Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, November has closed higher 80% of the time versus 70% across the last 10 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) November return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
This is a stock you can almost set a calendar by, and November is the anchor — it has closed higher in 7 of 10 Novembers, the steadiest beat on its year.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+13.0%) and median (+11.2%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even November ranges by 24.6% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — November has outpaced the S&P 500 by +10.7 points on average. Some of that is a strong month market-wide, mind — November rises for about 62% of stocks — so the tendency is real if not unique.
It doesn't stand entirely alone — February, June, and July have leaned firm as well, if less emphatically. The weaker half of the year is plainer: May has been the soft spot — the weakest of 2 months that average a loss (−6.2%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in May, September, and April. Its roughest month on record was a −25.7% September in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Novembers run ahead of the earlier years.
For a stock this dependable in November, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (November), its worst (May), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2016 its best month (November, +13.0%) has run well ahead of its worst (May, −6.2%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
November has been the strongest, averaging +13.0% and closing higher in 7 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −6.2% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade