The takeaway
YieldMax MRNA Option Income Strategy ETF shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 3 years of data — strongest in April (+4.1%) and softest in August (−11.8%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 50% of years, averaging +2.5% — essentially in line with the S&P 500.
The full picture
YieldMax MRNA Option Income Strategy ETF's most dependable month has been April, higher in 2 of 2 years; August has been its least reliable, up just 0% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in December (+8.8 pts); it has trailed the market most in August (−12.1 pts).
“vs S&P” is YieldMax MRNA Option Income Strategy ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating YieldMax MRNA Option Income Strategy ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Not enough recent April history to say whether the pattern still holds.
Figures are the typical (median) April return and how often it rose — the last 2 years versus the last 3(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 3-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The seasonal story is really one month's story — April. It has closed higher in all 2 Aprils, a concentration the rest of the calendar can't touch.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+4.1%) and median (+4.1%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. Few months are steadier: April's returns vary by just 0.5% year to year, and even its worst April in 3 years lost only 3.6% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Better still, that strength is the fund's own and not just a buoyant market — April has outpaced the S&P 500 by +2.5 points on average. Few peers keep such company in April — the typical stock clears it just 55% of the time.
Only December comes anywhere near it for reliability. On the other side of the ledger, August has been the soft spot — the weakest of 7 months that average a loss (−11.8%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in August, November, and February. Its roughest month on record was a −19.1% November in 2024 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
For a fund this dependable in April, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 3-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (April), its worst (August), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2023 its best month (April, +4.1%) has run well ahead of its worst (August, −11.8%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
April has been the strongest, averaging +4.1% and closing higher in all 2 years on record since 2023.
It's the weakest, averaging −11.8% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade