The takeaway
PagSeguro Digital Ltd shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 8 years of data — strongest in August (+7.5%) and softest in October (−11.6%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 63% of years, averaging +4.4%, about +2.3 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
PagSeguro Digital Ltd's most dependable month has been August, higher in 6 of 8 years; October has been its least reliable, up just 0% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in August (+7.2 pts); it has trailed the market most in October (−12.6 pts).
“vs S&P” is PagSeguro Digital Ltd’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating PagSeguro Digital Ltd’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, August has closed higher 60% of the time versus 75% across the last 8 years — the pattern is weakening.
Figures are the typical (median) August return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 8(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 8-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: August, up in 6 of 8 Augusts while the other eleven tend to blur together.
Its average (+7.5%) and median (+9.1%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even August ranges by 18.4% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: August has cleared the S&P 500 by +7.2 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages August only about 52% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: February, March, and May have also closed higher more often than not. At the other end of the calendar, October has been the soft spot — the weakest of 5 months that average a loss (−11.6%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in October, September, and November. Its roughest month on record was a −39.4% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The pattern has softened of late, August's last five years slipping below its longer-run record.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: August aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 8-year record and returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (August), its worst (October), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2018 its best month (August, +7.5%) has run well ahead of its worst (October, −11.6%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
August has been the strongest, averaging +7.5% and closing higher in 6 of 8 years since 2018.
It's the weakest, averaging −11.6% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade