The takeaway
Pegasystems Inc shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in February (+5.2%) and softest in March (−4.7%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 80% of years, averaging +3.9%, about +1.7 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Pegasystems Inc's most dependable month has been February, higher in 8 of 10 years; March has been its least reliable, up just 20% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in April (+5.7 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−5.7 pts).
“vs S&P” is Pegasystems Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Pegasystems Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, February has closed higher 60% of the time versus 80% across the last 10 years — the pattern is weakening.
Figures are the typical (median) February return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: February, up in 8 of 10 Februaries while the other eleven tend to blur together.
Its average (+5.2%) and median (+7.4%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even February ranges by 15.5% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: February has cleared the S&P 500 by +5.5 points above the index. It bucks the broad tape, besides: February lifts just 49% of stocks across the market.
A few other months pull their weight: January, April, and June have also closed higher more often than not. On the other side of the ledger, March has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−4.7%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March, December, and September. Its roughest month on record was a −33.5% May in 2022 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The pattern has softened of late, February's last five years slipping below its longer-run record.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: February aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the stock's best month (February), its worst (March), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2016 its best month (February, +5.2%) has run well ahead of its worst (March, −4.7%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
February has been the strongest, averaging +5.2% and closing higher in 8 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −4.7% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade