The takeaway
Shake Shack Inc shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in May (+7.9%) and softest in March (−6.4%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 40% of years, averaging +0.9%, roughly 1.3 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Shake Shack Inc's most dependable month has been May, higher in 7 of 10 years; March has been its least reliable, up just 20% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in May (+7.2 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−7.4 pts).
“vs S&P” is Shake Shack Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Shake Shack Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, May has closed higher 40% of the time versus 70% across the last 10 years — the pattern is weakening.
Figures are the typical (median) May return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Dependability is the through-line here. May stands out, higher in 7 of 10 Mays, but it heads a clutch of months that pull the year reliably upward.
Its average (+7.9%) and median (+8.0%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even May ranges by 18.5% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: May has cleared the S&P 500 by +7.2 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages May only about 55% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: January, February, and November have also closed higher more often than not. The weaker half of the year is plainer: March has been the soft spot — the weakest of 3 months that average a loss (−6.4%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March, September, and December. Its roughest month on record was a −34.0% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The pattern has softened of late, May's last five years slipping below its longer-run record.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: May aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt. With returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (May), its worst (March), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2016 its best month (May, +7.9%) has run well ahead of its worst (March, −6.4%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
May has been the strongest, averaging +7.9% and closing higher in 7 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −6.4% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade