The takeaway
The Wendy’s Co shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in November (+2.0%) and softest in February (−2.2%).
Right now
In July, the stock has fallen 60% of years, averaging −1.0%, roughly 3.1 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
The Wendy’s Co's most dependable month has been November, higher in 6 of 10 years; February has been its least reliable, up just 30% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in April (+2.8 pts); it has trailed the market most in July (−3.1 pts).
“vs S&P” is The Wendy’s Co’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating The Wendy’s Co’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, November has closed higher 60% of the time versus 60% across the last 10 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) November return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
This is a feast-or-famine calendar. November reads as the strong month, higher in 6 of 10 Novembers, but the tale is one of a few outsized years more than steady gains.
Read it with one caveat: the average (+2.0%) runs well ahead of the median (+0.2%), so a handful of outsized years — not steady strength — do much of the lifting. Set against the S&P 500, mind, November is close to a wash — the gain mirrors the market more than it beats it. Some of that is a strong month market-wide, mind — November rises for about 62% of stocks — so the tendency is real if not unique.
Only July comes anywhere near it for reliability. The weaker half of the year is plainer: February has been the soft spot — the weakest of 5 months that average a loss (−2.2%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in July, May, and February. Its roughest month on record was a −24.2% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
Hold it loosely, then: the November tendency is genuine but lumpy, more about the occasional outsized year than a gain to bank on.
Short answers on the stock's best month (November), its worst (February), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2016 its best month (November, +2.0%) has run well ahead of its worst (February, −2.2%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
November has been the strongest, averaging +2.0% and closing higher in 6 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −2.2% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade