The takeaway
StoneCo Ltd shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 8 years of data — strongest in July (+8.1%) and softest in October (−1.5%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 71% of years, averaging +8.1%, about +6.0 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
StoneCo Ltd's most dependable month has been July, higher in 5 of 7 years; October has been its least reliable, up just 25% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
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| 2018 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in July (+6.0 pts); it has trailed the market most in December (−4.1 pts).
“vs S&P” is StoneCo Ltd’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating StoneCo Ltd’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, July has closed higher 60% of the time versus 71% across the last 8 years — the pattern is weakening.
Figures are the typical (median) July return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 8(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 8-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The seasonal story is really one month's story — July. It has closed higher in 5 of 7 Julys, a concentration the rest of the calendar can't touch.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+8.1%) and median (+14.5%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even July ranges by 16.6% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — July has outpaced the S&P 500 by +6.0 points on average. Some of that is a strong month market-wide, mind — July rises for about 61% of stocks — so the tendency is real if not unique.
No other month comes close to matching it — the rest of the calendar is unremarkable by comparison. On the other side of the ledger, October has been the soft spot — the weakest of 6 months that average a loss (−1.5%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in December, March, and September. Its roughest month on record was a −54.0% November in 2021 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The pattern has softened of late, July's last five years slipping below its longer-run record.
For a stock this dependable in July, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 8-year record and returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (July), its worst (October), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2018 its best month (July, +8.1%) has run well ahead of its worst (October, −1.5%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
July has been the strongest, averaging +8.1% and closing higher in 5 of 7 years since 2018.
It's the weakest, averaging −1.5% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade