The takeaway
United States Gasoline Fund LP shows a slight seasonal lean over 10 years of data — strongest in March (−2.4%) and softest in November (−2.9%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 50% of years, averaging +0.9%, roughly 1.3 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
United States Gasoline Fund LP's most dependable month has been March, higher in 9 of 10 years; November has been its least reliable, up just 20% of the time.
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Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in May (+4.0 pts); it has trailed the market most in November (−5.2 pts).
“vs S&P” is United States Gasoline Fund LP’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating United States Gasoline Fund LP’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, March has closed higher 100% of the time versus 90% across the last 10 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) March return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Dependability is the through-line here. March stands out, higher in 9 of 10 Marches, but it heads a clutch of months that pull the year reliably upward.
Its average (−2.4%) and median (+3.4%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even March ranges by 20.2% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages March only about 56% of the time.
The strength clusters rather than stands alone — March–June forms a firm stretch that carries much of the year. The weaker half of the year is plainer: November has been the soft spot — the weakest of 2 months that average a loss (−2.9%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in November, March, and July.
March has now closed higher 5 years running. Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: March aside, the fund's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the fund's best month (March), its worst (November), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Only mildly. The fund's months are fairly even — March is the firmest (−2.4%) and November the softest (−2.9%), a narrow spread that points to weak seasonality rather than a strong calendar effect.
March has been the strongest, averaging −2.4% and closing higher in 9 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −2.9% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade