The takeaway
Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF Shares shows a slight seasonal lean over 10 years of data — strongest in July (+1.9%) and softest in November (+1.5%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 70% of years, averaging +1.9% — essentially in line with the S&P 500.
The full picture
Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF Shares's most dependable month has been July, higher in 7 of 10 years; November has been its least reliable, up just 40% of the time.
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Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+2.0 pts); it has trailed the market most in October (−2.0 pts).
“vs S&P” is Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF Shares’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF Shares’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, July has closed higher 60% of the time versus 70% across the last 10 years — the pattern is weakening.
Figures are the typical (median) July return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
This is a fund you can almost set a calendar by, and July is the anchor — it has closed higher in 7 of 10 Julys, the steadiest beat on its year.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+1.9%) and median (+2.7%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. Set against the S&P 500, mind, July is close to a wash — the gain mirrors the market more than it beats it. Some of that is a strong month market-wide, mind — July rises for about 61% of stocks — so the tendency is real if not unique.
July anchors a run, too: the March-through-August window has been the fund's reliable season. The weaker half of the year is plainer: November is the year's low point, though even there the fund has stayed positive on average (+1.5%), a sign every month leans up, and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in October, March, and February. Its roughest month on record was a −18.6% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The pattern has softened of late, July's last five years slipping below its longer-run record.
For a fund this dependable in July, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on.
Short answers on the fund's best month (July), its worst (November), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Only mildly. The fund's months are fairly even — July is the firmest (+1.9%) and November the softest (+1.5%), a narrow spread that points to weak seasonality rather than a strong calendar effect.
July has been the strongest, averaging +1.9% and closing higher in 7 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest month, but it has still averaged a small gain (+1.5%) — quiet rather than genuinely bad.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
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