The takeaway
BP PLC ADR shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in January (+2.9%) and softest in July (−1.5%).
Right now
In July, the stock has fallen 40% of years, averaging −1.5%, roughly 3.7 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
BP PLC ADR's most dependable month has been January, higher in 7 of 10 years; July has been its least reliable, up just 40% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | ||||||||||||
| 2020 | ||||||||||||
| 2019 | ||||||||||||
| 2018 | ||||||||||||
| 2017 | ||||||||||||
| 2016 |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+3.1 pts); it has trailed the market most in July (−3.7 pts).
“vs S&P” is BP PLC ADR’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating BP PLC ADR’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, January has closed higher 80% of the time versus 70% across the last 10 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) January return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
This is a stock you can almost set a calendar by, and January is the anchor — it has closed higher in 7 of 10 Januaries, the steadiest beat on its year.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+2.9%) and median (+4.0%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — January has outpaced the S&P 500 by +3.1 points on average. Few peers keep such company in January — the typical stock clears it just 53% of the time.
January anchors a run, too: the September-through-January window has been the stock's reliable season. The weaker half of the year is plainer: July has been the soft spot — the weakest of 3 months that average a loss (−1.5%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in July, March, and October. Its roughest month on record was a −24.3% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Januaries run ahead of the earlier years.
For a stock this dependable in January, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on.
Short answers on the stock's best month (January), its worst (July), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2016 its best month (January, +2.9%) has run well ahead of its worst (July, −1.5%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
January has been the strongest, averaging +2.9% and closing higher in 7 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −1.5% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade