The takeaway
Marathon Petroleum Corp shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in July (+4.3%) and softest in December (−2.3%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 90% of years, averaging +4.3%, about +2.2 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Marathon Petroleum Corp's most dependable month has been July, higher in 9 of 10 years; December has been its least reliable, up just 40% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in August (+2.7 pts); it has trailed the market most in December (−3.3 pts).
“vs S&P” is Marathon Petroleum Corp’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Marathon Petroleum Corp’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, July has closed higher 80% of the time versus 90% across the last 10 years — the pattern is weakening.
Figures are the typical (median) July return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
This is a stock you can almost set a calendar by, and July is the anchor — it has closed higher in 9 of 10 Julys, the steadiest beat on its year.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+4.3%) and median (+3.9%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. No month is steadier: July's returns vary by just 6.8% year to year. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — July has outpaced the S&P 500 by +2.2 points on average. Few peers keep such company in July — the typical stock clears it just 61% of the time.
July anchors a run, too: the July-through-October window has been the stock's reliable season. The weaker half of the year is plainer: December has been the soft spot — the weakest of 2 months that average a loss (−2.3%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in December and March. Its roughest month on record was a −50.5% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The pattern has softened of late, July's last five years slipping below its longer-run record.
For a stock this dependable in July, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on.
Short answers on the stock's best month (July), its worst (December), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2016 its best month (July, +4.3%) has run well ahead of its worst (December, −2.3%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
July has been the strongest, averaging +4.3% and closing higher in 9 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −2.3% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade