The takeaway
Phillips 66 shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in November (+4.5%) and softest in March (−1.4%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 70% of years, averaging +1.6%, roughly 0.5 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Phillips 66's most dependable month has been November, higher in 7 of 10 years; March has been its least reliable, up just 40% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | ||||||||||||
| 2020 | ||||||||||||
| 2019 | ||||||||||||
| 2018 | ||||||||||||
| 2017 | ||||||||||||
| 2016 |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in May (+2.4 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−2.4 pts).
“vs S&P” is Phillips 66’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Phillips 66’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, November has closed higher 80% of the time versus 70% across the last 10 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) November return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: November, up in 7 of 10 Novembers while the other eleven tend to blur together.
A typical November brings +3.1%, a shade under the +4.5% average. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even November ranges by 10.7% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: November has cleared the S&P 500 by +2.2 points above the index. Some of that is a strong month market-wide, mind — November rises for about 62% of stocks — so the tendency is real if not unique.
A few other months pull their weight: January, May, and July have also closed higher more often than not. At the other end of the calendar, March has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−1.4%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March, December, and June. Its roughest month on record was a −28.6% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Novembers run ahead of the earlier years.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: November aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the stock's best month (November), its worst (March), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2016 its best month (November, +4.5%) has run well ahead of its worst (March, −1.4%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
November has been the strongest, averaging +4.5% and closing higher in 7 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −1.4% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade