The takeaway
Walt Disney Company shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in November (+5.8%) and softest in September (−3.0%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 50% of years, averaging +1.6%, roughly 0.6 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Walt Disney Company's most dependable month has been November, higher in 6 of 10 years; September has been its least reliable, up just 20% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in November (+3.4 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−4.3 pts).
“vs S&P” is Walt Disney Company’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Walt Disney Company’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, November has closed higher 40% of the time versus 60% across the last 10 years — the pattern is weakening.
Figures are the typical (median) November return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
There's a real but measured seasonal tilt here, toward November — the firmest corner of the calendar, higher in 6 of 10 Novembers.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+5.8%) and median (+6.6%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even November ranges by 12.4% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — November has outpaced the S&P 500 by +3.4 points on average. Some of that is a strong month market-wide, mind — November rises for about 62% of stocks — so the tendency is real if not unique.
Only April comes anywhere near it for reliability. The weaker half of the year is plainer: September has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−3.0%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March, September, and May. Its roughest month on record was a −19.5% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The pattern has softened of late, November's last five years slipping below its longer-run record.
Treat it as a tendency rather than a rule — seasonality describes the past, not a promise.
Short answers on the stock's best month (November), its worst (September), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2016 its best month (November, +5.8%) has run well ahead of its worst (September, −3.0%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
November has been the strongest, averaging +5.8% and closing higher in 6 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −3.0% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade