The takeaway
SPDR® Gold Shares shows a slight seasonal lean over 10 years of data — strongest in July (+2.2%) and softest in November (−0.8%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 70% of years, averaging +2.2% — essentially in line with the S&P 500.
The full picture
SPDR® Gold Shares's most dependable month has been July, higher in 7 of 10 years; November has been its least reliable, up just 30% of the time.
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Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+2.3 pts); it has trailed the market most in November (−3.1 pts).
“vs S&P” is SPDR® Gold Shares’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating SPDR® Gold Shares’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, July has closed higher 60% of the time versus 70% across the last 10 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) July return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Dependability is the through-line here. July stands out, higher in 7 of 10 Julys, but it heads a clutch of months that pull the year reliably upward.
Its average (+2.2%) and median (+2.1%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. Set against the S&P 500, mind, July is close to a wash — the gain mirrors the market more than it beats it. Some of that is a strong month market-wide, mind — July rises for about 61% of stocks — so the tendency is real if not unique.
A few other months pull their weight: January, April, and May have also closed higher more often than not. On the other side of the ledger, November has been the soft spot — the weakest of 2 months that average a loss (−0.8%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in November, September, and June.
Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: July aside, the fund's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the fund's best month (July), its worst (November), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Only mildly. The fund's months are fairly even — July is the firmest (+2.2%) and November the softest (−0.8%), a narrow spread that points to weak seasonality rather than a strong calendar effect.
July has been the strongest, averaging +2.2% and closing higher in 7 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −0.8% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade