The takeaway
iShares® Gold Trust Micro shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 5 years of data — strongest in October (+2.5%) and softest in June (−2.1%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 60% of years, averaging +1.1%, roughly 1.0 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
iShares® Gold Trust Micro's most dependable month has been October, higher in 4 of 5 years; June has been its least reliable, up just 0% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in March (+4.4 pts); it has trailed the market most in June (−2.3 pts).
“vs S&P” is iShares® Gold Trust Micro’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating iShares® Gold Trust Micro’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, October has closed higher 80% of the time versus 80% across the last 5 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) October return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 5(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 5-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
This is a fund you can almost set a calendar by, and October is the anchor — it has closed higher in 4 of 5 Octobers, the steadiest beat on its year.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+2.5%) and median (+3.3%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. Better still, that strength is the fund's own and not just a buoyant market — October has outpaced the S&P 500 by +1.5 points on average. Few peers keep such company in October — the typical stock clears it just 53% of the time.
October anchors a run, too: the October-through-December window has been the fund's reliable season. The weaker half of the year is plainer: June has been the soft spot — the only month to average an outright loss (−2.1%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in June, July, and May.
For a fund this dependable in October, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 5-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (October), its worst (June), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2021 its best month (October, +2.5%) has run well ahead of its worst (June, −2.1%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
October has been the strongest, averaging +2.5% and closing higher in 4 of 5 years since 2021.
It's the weakest, averaging −2.1% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade