The takeaway
iShares Core MSCI Europe ETF shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in April (+2.6%) and softest in June (−0.9%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 80% of years, averaging +1.8% — essentially in line with the S&P 500.
The full picture
iShares Core MSCI Europe ETF's most dependable month has been April, higher in 8 of 10 years; June has been its least reliable, up just 40% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | ||||||||||||
| 2020 | ||||||||||||
| 2019 | ||||||||||||
| 2018 | ||||||||||||
| 2017 | ||||||||||||
| 2016 |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+1.7 pts); it has trailed the market most in October (−1.9 pts).
“vs S&P” is iShares Core MSCI Europe ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating iShares Core MSCI Europe ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, April has closed higher 60% of the time versus 80% across the last 10 years — the pattern is weakening.
Figures are the typical (median) April return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: April, up in 8 of 10 Aprils while the other eleven tend to blur together.
Its average (+2.6%) and median (+3.4%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. Crucially, the gain is the fund's own rather than a rising tide's: April has cleared the S&P 500 by +1.0 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages April only about 55% of the time.
The strength clusters rather than stands alone — March–May forms a firm stretch that carries much of the year. At the other end of the calendar, June has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−0.9%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in October, March, and June. Its roughest month on record was a −18.2% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The pattern has softened of late, April's last five years slipping below its longer-run record.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: April aside, the fund's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the fund's best month (April), its worst (June), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2016 its best month (April, +2.6%) has run well ahead of its worst (June, −0.9%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
April has been the strongest, averaging +2.6% and closing higher in 8 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −0.9% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade