The takeaway
iShares Europe ETF shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in April (+2.5%) and softest in June (−0.8%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 80% of years, averaging +1.7% — essentially in line with the S&P 500.
The full picture
iShares Europe ETF's most dependable month has been April, higher in 8 of 10 years; June has been its least reliable, up just 40% of the time.
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Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+1.7 pts); it has trailed the market most in October (−1.8 pts).
“vs S&P” is iShares Europe ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating iShares Europe ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, April has closed higher 60% of the time versus 80% across the last 10 years — the pattern is weakening.
Figures are the typical (median) April return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The seasonal story is really one month's story — April. It has closed higher in 8 of 10 Aprils, a concentration the rest of the calendar can't touch.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+2.5%) and median (+3.4%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. Better still, that strength is the fund's own and not just a buoyant market — April has outpaced the S&P 500 by +0.9 points on average. Few peers keep such company in April — the typical stock clears it just 55% of the time.
April anchors a run, too: the March-through-May window has been the fund's reliable season. The weaker half of the year is plainer: June has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−0.8%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in October, February, and March. Its roughest month on record was a −16.9% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The pattern has softened of late, April's last five years slipping below its longer-run record.
For a fund this dependable in April, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on.
Short answers on the fund's best month (April), its worst (June), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2016 its best month (April, +2.5%) has run well ahead of its worst (June, −0.8%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
April has been the strongest, averaging +2.5% and closing higher in 8 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −0.8% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade