The takeaway
Innovator ETFs Trust shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 2 years of data — strongest in August (+3.6%) and softest in October (−1.7%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 50% of years, averaging +0.5%, roughly 1.7 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Innovator ETFs Trust's most dependable month has been August, higher in 2 of 2 years; October has been its least reliable, up just 50% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in February (+3.4 pts); it has trailed the market most in October (−2.8 pts).
“vs S&P” is Innovator ETFs Trust’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Innovator ETFs Trust’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Not enough recent August history to say whether the pattern still holds.
Figures are the typical (median) August return and how often it rose — the last 2 years versus the last 2(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 2-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Dependability is the through-line here. August stands out, higher in all 2 Augusts, but it heads a clutch of months that pull the year reliably upward.
Its average (+3.6%) and median (+3.6%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. Crucially, the gain is the fund's own rather than a rising tide's: August has cleared the S&P 500 by +3.3 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages August only about 52% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: January, February, and May have also closed higher more often than not. At the other end of the calendar, October has been the soft spot — the only month to average an outright loss (−1.7%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in October, November, and July.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: August aside, the fund's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 2-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (August), its worst (October), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2024 its best month (August, +3.6%) has run well ahead of its worst (October, −1.7%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
August has been the strongest, averaging +3.6% and closing higher in all 2 years on record since 2024.
It's the weakest, averaging −1.7% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade