The takeaway
Direxion Daily CSI 300 China A Share Bull 2X Shares shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in February (+4.5%) and softest in March (−4.7%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 70% of years, averaging +2.7%, about +0.6 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Direxion Daily CSI 300 China A Share Bull 2X Shares's most dependable month has been February, higher in 7 of 10 years; March has been its least reliable, up just 30% of the time.
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Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in February (+4.7 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−5.7 pts).
“vs S&P” is Direxion Daily CSI 300 China A Share Bull 2X Shares’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Direxion Daily CSI 300 China A Share Bull 2X Shares’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, February has closed higher 60% of the time versus 70% across the last 10 years — the pattern is weakening.
Figures are the typical (median) February return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Dependability is the through-line here. February stands out, higher in 7 of 10 Februaries, but it heads a clutch of months that pull the year reliably upward.
A typical February brings +2.9%, a shade under the +4.5% average. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even February ranges by 12.9% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Crucially, the gain is the fund's own rather than a rising tide's: February has cleared the S&P 500 by +4.7 points above the index. It bucks the broad tape, besides: February lifts just 49% of stocks across the market.
The strength clusters rather than stands alone — December–February forms a firm stretch that carries much of the year. At the other end of the calendar, March has been the soft spot — the weakest of 3 months that average a loss (−4.7%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in March, April, and October. Its roughest month on record was a −26.4% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The pattern has softened of late, February's last five years slipping below its longer-run record.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: February aside, the fund's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the fund's best month (February), its worst (March), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2016 its best month (February, +4.5%) has run well ahead of its worst (March, −4.7%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
February has been the strongest, averaging +4.5% and closing higher in 7 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −4.7% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade