The takeaway
GXO Logistics Inc shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 5 years of data — strongest in July (+6.8%) and softest in February (−5.9%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 100% of years, averaging +6.8%, about +4.7 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
GXO Logistics Inc's most dependable month has been July, higher in 5 of 5 years; February has been its least reliable, up just 25% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in November (+5.3 pts); it has trailed the market most in April (−7.1 pts).
“vs S&P” is GXO Logistics Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating GXO Logistics Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, July has closed higher 100% of the time versus 100% across the last 5 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) July return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 5(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 5-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The seasonal story is really one month's story — July. It has closed higher in all 5 Julys, a concentration the rest of the calendar can't touch.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+6.8%) and median (+6.4%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. No month is steadier: July's returns vary by just 3.9% year to year, and even its worst July in 5 years lost only 0.5% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — July has outpaced the S&P 500 by +4.7 points on average. Few peers keep such company in July — the typical stock clears it just 61% of the time.
It doesn't stand entirely alone — March, May, and October have leaned firm as well, if less emphatically. At the other end of the calendar, February has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−5.9%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in April, December, and February. Its roughest month on record was a −28.0% December in 2024 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
July has now closed higher 5 years running.
For a stock this dependable in July, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 5-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (July), its worst (February), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2021 its best month (July, +6.8%) has run well ahead of its worst (February, −5.9%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
July has been the strongest, averaging +6.8% and closing higher in all 5 years on record since 2021.
It's the weakest, averaging −5.9% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade