The takeaway
Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 9 years of data — strongest in November (+8.5%) and softest in August (−14.0%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 63% of years, averaging +7.6%, about +5.4 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc's most dependable month has been November, higher in 6 of 9 years; August has been its least reliable, up just 13% of the time.
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| 2017 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+14.7 pts); it has trailed the market most in August (−14.3 pts).
“vs S&P” is Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, November has closed higher 80% of the time versus 67% across the last 9 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) November return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 9(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 9-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The year leans November's way without overwhelming the rest of it: the stock has closed higher in 6 of 9 Novembers, its most dependable month if not a dominant one.
A typical November brings +5.7%, a shade under the +8.5% average. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even November ranges by 24.7% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: November has cleared the S&P 500 by +6.2 points above the index. Some of that is a strong month market-wide, mind — November rises for about 62% of stocks — so the tendency is real if not unique.
Only July comes anywhere near it for reliability. At the other end of the calendar, August has been the soft spot — the weakest of 8 months that average a loss (−14.0%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in August, March, and April. Its roughest month on record was a −53.6% June in 2024 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Novembers run ahead of the earlier years.
Treat it as a tendency rather than a rule — seasonality describes the past, not a promise. With a short 9-year record and returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (November), its worst (August), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2017 its best month (November, +8.5%) has run well ahead of its worst (August, −14.0%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
November has been the strongest, averaging +8.5% and closing higher in 6 of 9 years since 2017.
It's the weakest, averaging −14.0% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade