The takeaway
Innovator ETFs Trust shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 2 years of data — strongest in August (+3.6%) and softest in March (−0.9%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 50% of years, averaging +0.4%, roughly 1.8 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Innovator ETFs Trust's most dependable month has been August, higher in 2 of 2 years; March has been its least reliable, up just 0% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+3.4 pts); it has trailed the market most in October (−2.7 pts).
“vs S&P” is Innovator ETFs Trust’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Innovator ETFs Trust’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Not enough recent August history to say whether the pattern still holds.
Figures are the typical (median) August return and how often it rose — the last 2 years versus the last 2(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 2-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
This is a fund you can almost set a calendar by, and August is the anchor — it has closed higher in all 2 Augusts, the steadiest beat on its year.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+3.6%) and median (+3.6%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. Better still, that strength is the fund's own and not just a buoyant market — August has outpaced the S&P 500 by +3.3 points on average. Few peers keep such company in August — the typical stock clears it just 52% of the time.
It doesn't stand entirely alone — January, February, and April have leaned firm as well, if less emphatically. The weaker half of the year is plainer: March has been the soft spot — the weakest of 2 months that average a loss (−0.9%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in October, November, and March.
For a fund this dependable in August, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 2-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (August), its worst (March), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2024 its best month (August, +3.6%) has run well ahead of its worst (March, −0.9%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
August has been the strongest, averaging +3.6% and closing higher in all 2 years on record since 2024.
It's the weakest, averaging −0.9% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade