The takeaway
Imperial Oil Ltd shows a slight seasonal lean over 10 years of data — strongest in August (+2.2%) and softest in January (+2.4%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 60% of years, averaging +0.2%, roughly 1.9 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Imperial Oil Ltd's most dependable month has been August, higher in 7 of 10 years; January has been its least reliable, up just 40% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in April (+5.4 pts); it has trailed the market most in December (−3.6 pts).
“vs S&P” is Imperial Oil Ltd’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Imperial Oil Ltd’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, August has closed higher 80% of the time versus 70% across the last 10 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) August return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Dependability is the through-line here. August stands out, higher in 7 of 10 Augusts, but it heads a clutch of months that pull the year reliably upward.
Its average (+2.2%) and median (+4.0%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. It is among its calmest months, too, its returns swinging least from year to year (a 6.0% spread). Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: August has cleared the S&P 500 by +1.9 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages August only about 52% of the time.
The strength clusters rather than stands alone — March–October forms a firm stretch that carries much of the year. The weaker half of the year is plainer: January is the year's low point, though even there the stock has stayed positive on average (+2.4%), a sign every month leans up, and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in December, July, and March. Its roughest month on record was a −49.9% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Augusts run ahead of the earlier years.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: August aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the stock's best month (August), its worst (January), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Only mildly. The stock's months are fairly even — August is the firmest (+2.2%) and January the softest (+2.4%), a narrow spread that points to weak seasonality rather than a strong calendar effect.
August has been the strongest, averaging +2.2% and closing higher in 7 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest month, but it has still averaged a small gain (+2.4%) — quiet rather than genuinely bad.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade