The takeaway
Direxion Daily MSFT Bear 1X Shares shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 4 years of data — strongest in December (+2.4%) and softest in May (−6.4%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 67% of years, averaging +0.8%, roughly 1.4 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Direxion Daily MSFT Bear 1X Shares's most dependable month has been December, higher in 4 of 4 years; May has been its least reliable, up just 0% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in September (+2.2 pts); it has trailed the market most in May (−7.1 pts).
“vs S&P” is Direxion Daily MSFT Bear 1X Shares’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Direxion Daily MSFT Bear 1X Shares’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 4 years, December has closed higher 100% of the time versus 100% across the last 4 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) December return and how often it rose — the last 4 years versus the last 4(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 4-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The seasonal story is really one month's story — December. It has closed higher in all 4 Decembers, a concentration the rest of the calendar can't touch.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+2.4%) and median (+1.7%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. Better still, that strength is the fund's own and not just a buoyant market — December has outpaced the S&P 500 by +1.4 points on average. Few peers keep such company in December — the typical stock clears it just 58% of the time.
It doesn't stand entirely alone — February, July, and August have leaned firm as well, if less emphatically. On the other side of the ledger, May has been the soft spot — the weakest of 5 months that average a loss (−6.4%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in May, November, and June. Its roughest month on record was a −14.4% March in 2023 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
For a fund this dependable in December, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 4-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (December), its worst (May), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2022 its best month (December, +2.4%) has run well ahead of its worst (May, −6.4%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
December has been the strongest, averaging +2.4% and closing higher in all 4 years on record since 2022.
It's the weakest, averaging −6.4% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade