The takeaway
PBF Energy Inc shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in September (+4.8%) and softest in February (+0.8%).
Right now
In July, the stock has fallen 40% of years, averaging −3.8%, roughly 5.9 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
PBF Energy Inc's most dependable month has been September, higher in 7 of 10 years; February has been its least reliable, up just 30% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in April (+6.9 pts); it has trailed the market most in July (−5.9 pts).
“vs S&P” is PBF Energy Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating PBF Energy Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, September has closed higher 80% of the time versus 70% across the last 10 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) September return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The seasonal story is really one month's story — September. It has closed higher in 7 of 10 Septembers, a concentration the rest of the calendar can't touch.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+4.8%) and median (+7.9%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even September ranges by 16.4% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — September has outpaced the S&P 500 by +4.9 points on average. It is the more striking for the company it keeps — September is a losing month for most of the market, where barely 39% of names gain ground.
Only January comes anywhere near it for reliability. At the other end of the calendar, February is the year's low point, though even there the stock has stayed positive on average (+0.8%), a sign every month leans up, and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in July, December, and March. Its roughest month on record was a −67.8% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Septembers run ahead of the earlier years.
For a stock this dependable in September, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (September), its worst (February), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2016 its best month (September, +4.8%) has run well ahead of its worst (February, +0.8%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
September has been the strongest, averaging +4.8% and closing higher in 7 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest month, but it has still averaged a small gain (+0.8%) — quiet rather than genuinely bad.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade