The takeaway
ProShares Short QQQ shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in February (+1.0%) and softest in July (−3.7%).
Right now
In July, the fund has fallen 10% of years, averaging −3.7%, roughly 5.9 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
ProShares Short QQQ's most dependable month has been February, higher in 6 of 10 years; July has been its least reliable, up just 10% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
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Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in September (+1.7 pts); it has trailed the market most in July (−5.9 pts).
“vs S&P” is ProShares Short QQQ’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating ProShares Short QQQ’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, February has closed higher 80% of the time versus 60% across the last 10 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) February return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
There's a real but measured seasonal tilt here, toward February — the firmest corner of the calendar, higher in 6 of 10 Februaries.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+1.0%) and median (+1.8%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. No month is steadier: February's returns vary by just 3.4% year to year, and even its worst February in 10 years lost only 3.6% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Better still, that strength is the fund's own and not just a buoyant market — February has outpaced the S&P 500 by +1.2 points on average. It is the more striking for the company it keeps — February is a losing month for most of the market, where barely 49% of names gain ground.
On the other side of the ledger, July has been the soft spot — the weakest of 8 months that average a loss (−3.7%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in July, November, and May. Its roughest month on record was a −17.9% April in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Februaries run ahead of the earlier years.
Treat it as a tendency rather than a rule — seasonality describes the past, not a promise.
Short answers on the fund's best month (February), its worst (July), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2016 its best month (February, +1.0%) has run well ahead of its worst (July, −3.7%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
February has been the strongest, averaging +1.0% and closing higher in 6 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −3.7% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade