The takeaway
ProShares UltraShort Yen shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in June (+2.4%) and softest in July (−1.8%).
Right now
In July, the fund has fallen 30% of years, averaging −1.8%, roughly 3.9 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
ProShares UltraShort Yen's most dependable month has been June, higher in 9 of 10 years; July has been its least reliable, up just 30% of the time.
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Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in October (+3.4 pts); it has trailed the market most in July (−3.9 pts).
“vs S&P” is ProShares UltraShort Yen’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating ProShares UltraShort Yen’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, June has closed higher 100% of the time versus 90% across the last 10 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) June return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Dependability is the through-line here. June stands out, higher in 9 of 10 Junes, but it heads a clutch of months that pull the year reliably upward.
Its average (+2.4%) and median (+2.6%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. Crucially, the gain is the fund's own rather than a rising tide's: June has cleared the S&P 500 by +2.1 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages June only about 52% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: April, September, and October have also closed higher more often than not. The weaker half of the year is plainer: July has been the soft spot — the only month to average an outright loss (−1.8%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in July, November, and December. Its roughest month on record was a −13.6% February in 2016 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
June has now closed higher 9 years running. If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Junes run ahead of the earlier years.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: June aside, the fund's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the fund's best month (June), its worst (July), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2016 its best month (June, +2.4%) has run well ahead of its worst (July, −1.8%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
June has been the strongest, averaging +2.4% and closing higher in 9 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −1.8% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade